Executive Summary

The rapid development of artificial intelligence has enabled ramped-up, convincing media manipulation, exposing humanity to a new and often overlooked threat to international peace and security: the collapse of reliable crisis verification.

As synthetic imagery through audio and video becomes increasingly indistinguishable from real evidence, both states and non-state actors risk operating in an environment where factual confirmation can be challenged or outright denied. This phenomenon—commonly described as the liars’ dividend—does not just enable misinformation; it also erodes the fundamental assumption that a shared reality exists during moments of geopolitical crisis.

Scope of Problem

Throughout history, peace and security frameworks have relied on credibility as the only shared evidence used for institutional verification to prevent escalation. Falsified AI-driven media undermines the credibility of these mechanisms, increasing the likelihood of miscalculation and overreaction in high-stakes confrontations. The scope of this challenge is global and cross-institutional.

 Currently, fabricated and manipulated media can circulate instantly across borders with few restrictions, fueling the proliferation of fake content. No single state or institution possesses both the technical capacity and political legitimacy to serve as a “universally trusted verifier” during crises, thereby disproportionately affecting high-tension geopolitical contexts such as sanctions on regimes, electoral legitimacy, or even militarized borders in regions with active or latent conflict.  In these environments, uncertainty about the accuracy of reported incidents—such as suspected attacks or civilian harm—can complicate decision-making and increase the risk of error. Even brief delays in confirming facts can influence diplomatic actions, military stances, or public opinion, sometimes in ways that are hard to reverse.

At the institutional level, existing peace and security frameworks were originally designed for an era when evidence could be authenticated through well-established diplomatic channels and multilateral monitoring bodies. AI-generated media now have the potential to outpace these mechanisms, creating a structural gap between the capabilities of this emerging technology and the institutional responses we are expected to develop to control its proliferation. This gap is problematic because it can undermine accountability and weaken deterrence. 

Finally, a digital epistemic of this caliber and scale can become a problem far beyond crisis escalation, as a lack of public trust erodes institutions and weakens long-term peacebuilding efforts. When populations and policymakers alike are unable to distinguish between authentic and fabricated evidence, confidence in the international norms of processes vanishes. Without targeted policy interventions, AI-driven verification failures are likely to become a persistent threat multiplier in the near future, in turn breeding more conflicts rather than perpetual peace.

Policy Objectives

                  An effective policy intervention should focus on maintaining a stable information environment during international crises. This helps reduce the risk of misunderstandings and accidental escalations. Specifically, policy should aim to:

1. Maintain the ability to verify crises

Ensure governments and multilateral institutions can quickly verify disputed audio-visual evidence during high-stakes geopolitical events.

2. Minimize escalation risks amidst epistemic uncertainty.

Reduce the chances of unverified or disputed media causing early military, economic, or diplomatic reactions.

3. Protect the credibility of peace and security institutions.

Maintain trust in international organizations by adapting them to function effectively within AI-disrupted information environments.

4. Prevent the strategic exploitation of verification gaps.

Limit opportunities for both state and non-state actors to use the liars’ dividend as a means of coercion, denial, or eroding norms.

5. Promote sustainable peacebuilding and ensure accountability

Solidify the basis for accountability and reconciliation after a crisis by maintaining the integrity of evidence over time.